⏰ Time To Wake Up!
👋 Hi finance enthusiasts and fellow investors!
Time to wake up, folks! After a rather quiet three months in the crypto market, Bitcoin is stirring again. The market has been in a lull since the last all-time high, but recent developments suggest that the wait might be over. Let's dive into the exciting changes happening right now.
IX Pro members know that I've been pretty quiet lately, not making many moves in the market. There wasn't much happening besides a few individual coin pumps, and people were trying too hard to make quick profits. During these times, it's better to wait and let the newbies lose their money while we save more to invest or simply hold our positions.
But now, it's time to wake up again. I believe we could finally see the breakout we've been waiting for.
The information provided in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.
The 5th Breakout Attempt for BTC - Will It Succeed?
Bitcoin is making its 5th attempt to break out, and this time the market dynamics are quite interesting. Here's what we're seeing:
Low Funding Rates: Despite the high open interest, funding rates remain stable and aren't overheating. Compared to 3 months ago, the aggregate financing rate is significantly lower.
Low Risk of Overheating: Comparing with past cycles, there's a low risk of the market overheating at the moment.
Short Positions Could Aid the Breakout: If BTC hits the $72,000 - $73,000 range, short positions might actually help push it higher as they get liquidated.
Historical Volatility at Lows: The low volatility suggests a significant move is on the horizon.
It's an exciting time, isn't it? The data points toward a potential big move for Bitcoin. Let's keep our eyes on those levels.
Is the Crypto Market Overleveraged?
Let's talk about market leverage.
No Excessive Long Risk: Funding rates and premiums don't show signs of excessive long risk.
Chilled Funding Rates: Similar to what we saw in 2017/2018, funding rates are cool and not indicative of a market that's too long.
The market seems to be in a healthy spot right now, without the dangerous levels of leverage that could lead to a sharp correction.
Clear Breakout Signals Are Piling Up
A few key signals are suggesting a breakout might be imminent:
ETF Inflows and Traditional Markets: Support from ETFs and traditional markets is bolstering Bitcoin's price.
Potential for a Short-Term Pullback: While there might be a short-term dip, the long-term outlook remains bullish.
Positioning and Risk Management: Long-term long positions are favored in this scenario.
These signals are painting a promising picture for Bitcoin. It's always important to stay informed and ready to adjust our strategies accordingly.
My Personal Price Forecast
Here's where I see BTC heading:
Price Target: If BTC successfully breaks out, I'm looking at a target between $80,000 and $84,000.
Cheers and happy investing!
Cheers!
Stefan
Co-Founder of CryptoExplorer & InvestmentExplorer